Investment Articles
I have had the privilege of writing investment-related articles almost every calendar-quarter for over a decade. All of these articles were published in our quarterly newsletter, which is mailed to almost one-thousand clients and friends-of-the-firm all over the United States.
Many of these articles have also appeared, in various forms, in the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal. I have a lot of friends there and their Journal should be required reading for anyone in the business scene in Northwest Arkansas.
For permission to quote from any of these articles, please send me an e-mail outlining your proposed publication and be sure to credit Glenn Atkins, CFA and GlennAtkins.com. Articles may be reproduced for academic use without permission. Please credit Glenn Atkins, CFA and GlennAtkins.com. All articles Copyright © Glenn E. Atkins.
First Quarter 1997
Is Standard Deviation Bad?
This is a really cool article pointing out that not all performance volatility is bad. When your manager beats the market, that's good. How to tell the difference between good and bad standard deviation (volatility) in investment performance.
Second Quarter 1997
Performance Attribution
This is one of my favorites. Explains how to determine if your investment manager is lucky or smart. Some heady math involved, but nothing you can't handle!
Third Quarter 1997
Relativity Theory, Normal Distributions, and Credit Decisions
You can be certain that this has nothing to do with physics!
Fourth Quarter 1997
Interesting Facts
Some neat stuff we uncovered right in the middle of the bull market.
First Quarter 1998
Y2K
What a joke this turned out to be - another example of your tax dollars at work. The worries about Y2K turned out to be extremely exaggerated.
Second Quarter 1998
What is Free Cash Flow?
Discusses the concept of free cash flow as a valuation method.
Third Quarter 1998
Computers, Decisions, Investment Puzzles and Other Problems
Points out the fact that a computer is only a tool, and will never provide you with all the answers.
Fourth Quarter 1998
Data and Information: The Influence of the Internet on the Management of Investment Portfolios
Describes the huge difference between data and information, and how to use each.
First Quarter 1999
Earnings Management (Manipulation?) & Operating Income
Does corporate management manipulate earnings? You bet!
Second Quarter 1999
The Cost of Waiting
As Tom Petty is known to say, "the waiting is the hardest part." Stresses the importance of starting your retirement saving early because "waiting" hurts so much.
Third Quarter 1999
Management Efficiency
Could this be the Holy Grail of financial ratios?
Fourth Quarter 1999
Revisiting Valuation
Reprises our discounted cash flow method of valuation given the nose-bleed heights of the market at the time.
First Quarter 2000
Return of The Milkman & Other Random Thoughts
Random thoughts on the technology in our lives.
Second Quarter 2000
Risk & Return
You should analyze neither risk or return in isolation. Blending the implications of each, as the Sharpe Ratio does, leads to more informed conclusions about performance.
Third Quarter 2000
The Difficulty of Credit Decisions
When you pick a stock, you want it to go up. When you pick a bond, you want it NOT to go down. Two very different sides of what is, perhaps, the same coin.
Fourth Quarter 2000
What Happens If The Government Pays Off The Debt?
They never will, so we'll never know - but some interesting observations nonetheless.
First Quarter 2001
Capital Structures, P/E Ratios & Cash Flow
Explores the effect that a chosen capital structure has on P/E ratios and cash flow.
Second Quarter 2001
Financial Analysis
Basic financial ratios. Boring but necessary!
Third Quarter 2001
Equity Price Premiums - The Price of Admission
You can't get higher returns without taking higher risk. In the future, you may not get higher returns at all.
Fourth Quarter 2001
Ratings Drift & Credit Quality
Explores the fact that the bond rating agencies are not always on the mark. Many times they are late to the party!
First Quarter 2002
EBITDA
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization as a measure of economic cash flow which is independent of the capital structure of the firm.
Third Quarter 2002
Wind Chill Factors
Perception versus reality of stock market volatility during the recent bear market.
Fourth Quarter 2002
The Year That Was
This was a tough year in the bond market, due largely to some high-profile bankruptcies. Explores the fact that much of the return in your bond portfolio will come from avoiding potential disasters.
First Quarter 2003
Credit Stability
We were fortunate to have called the fundamental "bottom" of the credit cycle on corporate bonds.
Third Quarter 2003
Value At Risk & Return Variability
This is another one of my favorites! Provides a primer on Monte Carlo analysis and retirement estimates. Hugely complex mathematical concepts, but easily explained. Get some coffee before you read this one!
Fourth Quarter 2003
Know What You Own
Proves that most of the biggest, most popular mutual funds hold many of the exact same stocks. Is your portfolio less diversified that you thought?
First Quarter 2004
Contrasts On Inflation
Raises the question of whether inflation is set to return to the US economy.
Second Quarter 2004
Bond Returns Fluctuate Too
Discusses the almost unbelievable fact that bond prices can go down too, not just stocks.
Third Quarter 2004
We Were Right All Along
Looks back at my article from the Fourth Quarter of 2001 (see above) and provides some documentary evidence of more credit ratings drift and that the rating agencies are slow to react to changing company fundamentals.
Fourth Quarter 2004
Gift Card Accounting
How does the rise in gift card purchases distort traditional retail sales measurements? It's hard to tell for sure.
First Quarter 2005
Railroads & Politics
No politician has ever survived touching the "Third Rail" of politics - the sanctity of Social Security entitlement. Proposals to save this institution come and go but none is ever enacted.
Second Quarter 2005
Relative Returns and Investor Psychology
Discover how investors react to market returns. Absolute investment performance pays the bills and relative investment performance keeps you in the hunt.
First Quarter 2006
Wants & Needs
Addresses apparent inflation in the US economy in the face of government statistics saying there is none. Are they sure?
Second Quarter 2006
The Regulatory Pendulum
Sometimes government regulation goes too far and over the years the pendulum swings from one extreme to the other. At the end of the day though the rules are simple: don't lie, cheat or steal.
Third Quarter 2006
The Chameleon Of Madagascar
Market risk has many disguises and you must always keep your guard up. Stick with the fundamentals and don't chase the latest hot trend.
Second Quarter 2007
Liar Loans, Lipstick & Pigs
Sometimes you don't need a job to get a mortgage. If you're living in a McMansion and working at a McDonalds there may be a problem.